One of the most fun items I posted this year was my list of the top possible surprises of the Oscar nominations, some of which ended up coming true (or half-true). With the Academy Awards ceremony now just days away, here are my 10 possible shockers that could take place this Sunday.
1. Slumdog Millionaire picks up the Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing prizes, winning all nine categories in which it’s nominated.
2. Doubt’s Viola Davis avoids vote splitting with costar Amy Adams and tops Penélope Cruz for Best Supporting Actress.
3. The Kate vs. Meryl showdown in Best Actress ends in a loss for both, as Frozen River’s Melissa Leo pulls an Adrien Brody and comes through with the win.
4. After losing the BFCA and SAG awards to Sean Penn, Mickey Rourke finally wins his first major domestic prize (i.e. voted on by Americans) and takes home Best Actor.
5. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button gets upset in the Best Art Direction, Best Visual Effects, and Best Makeup categories and becomes the biggest Oscar loser in history, going 0 for 13.
6. David Hare’s script for The Reader steals the adapted screenplay trophy from Slumdog’s Simon Beaufoy.
7. France’s The Class wins Best Foreign Language Film over critical favorite Waltz With Bashir (my colleague Thom Geier and I are actually predicting that one).
8. WALL•E not only wins Best Animated Film but also picks up Original Screenplay and both sound prizes for a total of four Oscars.
9. The Dark Knight wins Best Supporting Actor but otherwise goes home empty-handed.
10. Telecast producers Bill Condon and Laurence Mark actually manage to keep the ceremony under three hours. (You can do it, guys!)
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The only one of these that seems plausible is Mickey Rourke winning Best Actor. This year’s show will be such a snooze, they should present Best Supporting Actor as the last award
1. Slumdog won’t do that. The last film to sweep its nominations was The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, and Slumdog is certainly not as respected as LOTR.
2. Wouldn’t be surprising at all. Seeing past winner Tomei take it would be big, but how awesome would a complete look of shock on Amy Adams’ face be if HER name were called?
3. Not a chance. The only more sure wins than Winslet this year are Ledger and WALL-E (Animated Feature).
4. A Rourke win would be awesome, but not surprising. You wanna talk “pulling an Adrien Brody,” look no further than Mr. Richard Jenkins.
5. Yes, THAT would be a shocker, but if TCCOBB loses any of these it’ll be Makeup (to Hellboy II).
6. This would make for good TV. The Best Picture race would be way more up in the air from that point on.
7. I think we’re all secretly banking on this (think The Lives of Others beating Pan’s Labyrinth 2 years ago).
8. & 9. I’m counting on both of these to happen (except WALL-E for Screenplay)
10. Impossible.
I think that Leo’s win is about impossible, as hardly anyone will see that movie, and it just wasn’t that good to begin with, but I think that Anne Hathaway could win if we see a Meryl-Winslet vote splitting.
Dave is reaching for “shockers” here – it would hardly be a big shock if Viola Davis or Mickey Rourke won, guys. It’s like saying it was such a major upset when “Crash” won Best Picture, which was widely predicted. As for Adapted Screenplay, the best surprise would be if “Revolutionary Road” wins by write-in vote. THAT was a great adaptation.
While we’re on the subject, why not more buzz for Taraji P. Henson for Supporting Actress? Couldn’t you use the same logic that led to Tilda Swinton’s victory last year despite almost no pre-Oscar prizes – a respected character actress in a Best Picture nominee that has multiple nominations but is unlikely to take any other major categories?
Robert Downy Jr might get the Oscar for best supporting actor over Ledger
I think Frank Langella might have a REAL chance to win best actor…he’s been around for years, and this might be a good chance for the academy to recognize him. Never know!!!
Eh, I kinda like Oscars that run on a bit, so long as they are still entertaining. I’m a bit wary that this year’s Oscars will be fairly boring, so maybe keeping it under 3 hours would be nice, but in past years I’ve enjoyed pushing to midnight so long as it’s entertaining.
If Winslet loses this year, I’ll probably turn the TV off.
11. slumdog doesn’t win best picture.
I honestly can’t remember a year when I have been less interested in the Oscars – and I think I have watched every year since 1970! I’ve seen all the big movies this year, but none of them were all that. There are some good performances nominated but no real genuine emotions – except for the Supporting Actor, which everyone already knows who will win that. I guess I know its going to be boring and every year I say I’ll never watch it again, but this year for the first time – I just might mean it.
What about the biggest one of all?
The AMPAS follows in the footsteps of the National Board of Review and the New York Film Critics Association and gives Best Supporting Actor to Josh Brolin for Milk?
No Dark Knight for Best picture. I’m not watching and I don’t care.
dave is probably the worst (for sure the worst-researched) oscar prognosticator on the web guys, check out awardsdaily or goldderby for some real scoop…
Mick winning would be a huge upset? Uh, last time I checked someone running neck-and-neck and splitting all the pre-Oscar awards and then winning the big one is hardly an upset, cmon Dave, you can do better than that, or maybe you can’t and should just take over the abandoned House and Heroes recaps….
I think Viola Davis does have a strong chance at winning but yeah, it would be a shock if she did win. As for Best Actress, anyone other then Winslet or Streep will be a shocker, but if anyone can pull it upset, it would have to be Hathaway and not Leo. Out of the other three nominees, Hathaway is the one who could pull an upset on Winslet and Streep, if the two should be undone by a split vote, then Hathaway will sneak in. As for the Actor race, Penn and Rourke have been pretty close, so either of them winning wouldn’t be much of a shock. Its weird in that three out of the four acting catagories this year are very iffy, with almost no clear cut, locked winner, so I think this year will be very interesting.
I agree with TJ. If anyone upsets Kate versus Meryl, I predict it’s Anne Hathaway. And part of me hopes she wins.
Now that Slumdog has won awards from the ASC, ACE, ADG, CAS (for cinematography, editing, production design & sound) makes me feel that it has a shot at sweeping the Oscars.
The only thing that would be shocking on Sunday night is if Slumdog doesn’t win Best Picture.
Yep these wouldn’t really shock me too much….if Heath really wins it might shock me a bit, not that the performance doesn’t warrant it….it’s just only happened like once before, so we’ll see. I really hope Kate wins, she’s been passed over too often.
I think if we’re shocked, it’s going to come in the supporting categories. I think Heath could lose, it is possible. If so, I hope it’s a loss to Michael Shannon, who steals Rev. Road! I also think Penelope isn’t safe, and anyone (except Taraji P. Henson) can win that category.
Kate Winslet has the best shot at taking Best Actress, with Meryl Streep in a close second. But they both could end up losing by splitting each others votes, seeing as how Oscar voters are probably looking to reward one of Oscar’s two biggest losers. But the surprise winner in this situation won’t be Melissa Leo, it will be Anne Hathaway.
I’m really hoping Slumdog does not take every award it’s nominated for. It’s already taking Best Picture from other, more deserving nominees (and would-be nominees). It doesn’t need to take all the tech awards too. Those should go to The Dark Knight and Benjamin Button.
If The Reader (or any other film for that matter) takes Best Adapted Screenplay, that would make the night a bit more interesting going into the award for Best Picture. But even if this does happen, I would still put my money on Slumdog for Best Picture.
And I would love to see WALL-E pick up Best Original Screenplay. I think it’s the most deserving of the bunch.
And I’m betting on Heath Ledger taking Best Supporting Actor. He definitely deserves it more that anyone else. But should he lose the award (which would be downright outrageous), I just hope it doesn’t go to Robert Downey Jr. I think Michael Shannon is second in line for that award. His performance in Revolutionary Road is brilliant, and it would help make up for the ridiculous snubbing of the film. But honestly, they probably already have Ledger’s name engraved on the award. And rightfully so.
honestly, i am perplexed by josh brolin even being nominated. james franco gave a much stronger and heartfelt performance, and i would have loved to see him nominated instead. I would love a surprise tomei/rourke double win
Brad for best actor!!
I have to agree with a lot of other people and say that if anyone can possibly upset a Winslet or Streep win, it would have to be Hathaway. Nobody saw Frozen River (yes, even fewer than saw ‘Rachel’), Angelina Jolie shouldn’t have even been nominated, and I think that because ‘Rachel’ didn’t get any other nominations some people who really liked it might vote for Hathaway as a way of voting for the whole film.
I don’t see why Rourke winning would be a shock, as many people are predicting him. And Marion Cotillard, a foreign-born actor with a completely non-English performance, won with the same precursors.
Considering how many of your potential nominations surprises came true, I am quite worried.
I agree with Adam. It is an outright travesty that Revolutionary Road didn’t get better recognition by the Academy Awards. The fact that they completely ignored the best acting performances in a 2008 film both male and female again just proves the blind stupidity of the selection process. I’ve seen all the major Oscar nominees with the exception of Benjamin Button, and Slumdog Millionaire. I’ll see Benjamin Button this weekend or next. Slumdog Millionaire from what I’ve seen in the trailers is basically the bollywood version of High School Musical. I’ll pass on that idiotic selection. That said, no actors come close to touching the acting performances of Leonardo Di Caprio, and Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road. I hope the actors in the best actor category realize Sunday night that their category is a sham without Leo in it. It’s a real shame as well. The biggest surprise- there is no surprise! Slumdog & Wall-E will sweep their categories. The usual suspects will win yet again!
Slumdog Millionaire is not a version of High School Musical! You must have been watching a different trailer if you would compare the two movies. I question whether you’ve seen either movie. Are you really going to compare an R-rated drama to a PG-rated musical?
Matt2 – It’s odd that you haven’t seen Slumdog Millionaire yet have already passed judgement on it calling it an “idiotic selection”. How can you possibly know if it’s worthy of a nomination by the trailers? I would suggest watching it first if you want to knock it. However I do agree that Leo missing from the best actor noms is a travesty as he was outstanding.
Just because Dave Karger says it’s a shocker doesn’t mean it is one. In #2, for example, Viola Davis and Penelope Cruz have been duking it out all season, with Kate Winslet taking the higher profile awards. So now that Kate’s out of the picture, it would be plausible that either of the other two actresses would take it. Davis is not the “shocker” he says she is. Also, just b/c Rourke didn’t get the SAG doesn’t make him a dark horse. I would say that Rourke has had much more visibility than Penn has, and is far from being a shocker. And The Dark Knight winning only best supporting actor wouldn’t be a shocker either, considering its competition. Dave Karger needs to re-think his definition of “shocker,” because it appears that he uses the term far too loosely.