The awards gods don’t seem to be smiling on me this year. First, I publish my Oscar nomination predictions, which end up matching perfectly with the Producers Guild and Directors Guild nominees but naturally miss a few of the eventual Academy Award honorees. Then I arrive at my Oscar-winner guesses…which almost completely match with this weekend’s BAFTA winners. So, with my predictions hitting newsstands today, I ask you: What have I (and my intrepid colleague Thom Geier, who handles all the documentary and shorts races) gotten wrong? Let us have it.
Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director, Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Actor: Sean Penn, Milk
Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Supporting Actress: Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Animated Film: Wall-E
Foreign-Language Film: The Class
Documentary: Man On Wire
Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Costume Design: The Duchess
Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Song: “Jai Ho,” Slumdog Millionaire
Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sound: The Dark Knight
Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight
Short: Spielzugland (Toyland)
Animated Short: Presto
Documentary Short: The Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306
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Sean Penn is not going to win for Milk. It’s definitely be Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler …..
Finally having seen Vicky Christina Barcelona, i would have to say that the person who should win Best Supproting Actress is… Viola Davis. Penelope Cruz, who was admittably good in the Woody Allen flick has nothing on the depth and honesty and skill of the craft shown by Viola Davis is Doubt. To me, this is a no brainer.
I am also so glad to see you pick Sean Penn over Mickey Rourke. Rourke’s performance, although well executed, is only second to Penelope Cruz on the Most Overrated Preformance of the Year List. This year’s race should have been a three-horse race between Penn, Langella and Leonardo DiCaprio in Revolutionary Road (it’s a shame he wasn’t nominated)
Although I do feel that both Cruz and Rourke are worthy of a nomination, I don’t feel that either gave the best performance in their category.
I really hope its Mickey Rourke over Sean Penn for best actor, but it really is a toss up. :/
i honestly think anne hatheway deserves to win in the best supportign actress category over winslet and streep. I think she loses cred because rachel getting married didnt have the major promotion the reader and doubt reveled in. As a mattter of fact of all winslet street and hatheway i think winslet dererves it the least
i almost dont wanna watch this year, just because the predictable slumdog train will roll over everything.
such an overrated movie. again, not bad by any means, but nowhere near “best” either.
I think we’re looking at a couple surprises (i hope!). I predict Viola Davis upsets Penelope Cruz in best supporting actress, and someone completely random wins best original screenplay (maybe the writers of Wall E will claim it; or In Bruges). Just my gut feeling! And watch out for Mickey Rourke in best actor, I think it’s actually a pretty even horse race for best Actor.
I think you’re underestimating Wall-E winning more categories.
i still dont think slumdong will will screenplay- i think frost / nixon is gonna get it… its also not winning for song
I’d like to see Milk take Best Picture, Slumdog was cool, but not on the same level as the Van Sant picture.
I really hope Mickey Rourke wins over Sean Penn. I thought Rourke was spectacular and Penn just “so-so”. I don’t understand why his performance is getting so much hype. I’d love to see Meryl Streep upset Winslet in the actress category. She was amazing in Doubt (although I haven’t seen The Reader yet). I think it’s stupid that it’s a foregone conclusion that Milk will win best screenplay. It wasn’t even good. The best screenplay should go to In Bruges but unfortunately the academy overlooked that one.
aaron i couldnt agree more… slumdong is the most overrated film of 2008.
Nathan, if Milk wins best picture it would be absurd. Even Frost/Nixon is more deserving.
I’d like to see Milk take Best Picture, Slumdog was cool, but not on the same level as the Van Sant picture.
I would say it might be a Richard Jenkins “dark horse” win, sneaking in between 2 bigger names and stories (Penn & Rourke) duking it out. See Adrien Brody, 2002. I’m taking the risk in all my Oscar pools!
I hope you’re right with Best Actress.
If there’s an upset there I’m hoping and praying it goes to Melissa Leo or Anne Hathaway and not Streep. I’ve got loads of respect for her talent, but think her turn in Doubt was good, not great, and definitely not the best performance of the year.
I’m rooting for ‘O Saya’ to beat ‘Jai Ho’. How cool would it be for M.I.A. to win an Oscar? Especially just weeks after losing a Grammy that easily should have been hers.
Also pulling for WALL*E in the sound categories! By far the most memorable and effective sound in any movie this year.
I really think the Michael Clayton-effect will play out in the supporting actress category. The academy will want to award Ben Button some major category, and Taraji P. Henson will take home the award.
I really hope Sean Penn doesn’t win; I think he’s a very overrated actor. Milk is a good movie, but Penn’s efforts were nothing impressive. I’m hoping Langella wins, but I’m guessing it will be Mickey Rourke.
As for Best Actress, I agree with Dave that we’re going to see a weepy Winslet on that stage and I’m okay with that. But I would prefer for Meryl Streep to get her well-deserved third award.
brian, I agree that Rachel Getting Married is getting overlooked. It was a great movie with great acting throughout.
Viola Davis for supporting actress!
She stole that whole film in one scene.
I basically agree with all of your choices, but I think “Down to Earth” is going to win for Best Song. This is Thomas Newman’s 10TH nomination without a win so far, and Peter Gabriel’s first. I think the Academy will finally give these veterans their due (at least I HOPE they do!)
Also, if anyone is going to upset Cruz, I think it will be Amy Adams, because frankly, she was better than Viola Davis and displayed much more range (also because her part had more range).
I disagree with Viola Davis winning supporting actress. I thought Amy Adams performance was much more compelling and difficult. Although Davis did an amazing job in that one scene, I just think there’s enough work there to merit an award. But then again the academy did award William Hurt for his 10 minute performance in History of Violence.
I think Wall-E might have a shot at original screenplay. Make a great movie with almost no speeking? Well that hasn’t been seen in almost a century.
I’ll be so upset if Mickey Rourke wins Best Actor. I think it’s the one of the most overrated performances this year (if not in a few years), second only to Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder. It was certainly a physically taxing and well-executed performance, worthy of a nomination, but doesn’t begin to touch Penn, or even Langella and Jenkins. I just don’t see what all the fuss is about with his performance, and see his hype as much more a tribute to him actually able to pull of a performance like this anymore. That’s not a good enough reason for an Oscar, though.
For Best Picture, I, too, would LOVE to see Milk take it. It’s the best, most moving picture of the year, for me. Slumdog was good, but not in my top five for this year (very strong year though).
As for Best Actress…yikes. It’s a dead tie to me between Winslet and Streep. They are both deserving and long overdue. I’ll give the edge to Streep, though…just personal taste I guess. What an incredible year for actresses.
Think Amy Adams could pull an upset for Supporting with a Davis/Cruz vote split and her own past work helping her out like it did with Tilda Swinton last year. And yeah, Winslet has racked up every award already for Reader but remember, it was all in Supporting as putting it in the lead could throw some off. They may want someone more dynamic like maybe Hathaway who’s a rising Hollywood fave. Keep in mind, the last decade has seen Best Actress go quite a few times to young starlets on their first nomination. I’m still betting on Winslet of course but I think Hathaway’s got a better shot upsetting than Streep does (I mean, the woman openly said at the SAGs that she doesn’t care for awards anyway). Not sure about Penn as Roruke was so phenomenal and Oscars love a comeback story but otherwise, agree with your picks.
“Man on Wire” loses to Werner Herzog’s “Encounters at the End of the World”, one of the year’s most beautifully-shot films.
My predictions
Actor: Richard Jenkins
Actress: Meryl Streep
Supporting Actor: Phillip Hoffman Seymour
Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz
Movie: Curious Case of Benjamin Button
(these will be all upset wins)
wall-e definately deserves the sound award- even though it wasnt nominated for best picture, i believe wall-e is going to have the most oscar wins in animated history
Penn is definately not going to win. His buzz is already gone. I also tend to name Rourke, but since it’s a tight race Langella is gonna outdo both of them and win eventually.
If Tomei wouldn’t already have an Oscar I would name her as Best Supporting Actress. This way it’s most probably Cruz, though it’s probably by a vote.
And nobody else thinking that McDonagh might win over Black? We need at least one surprise.
And, I’m still convinced that Benjamin Button will be Best Picture.
Mickey Rourke over Sean Penn (he already has one, and Rourke promises a better speech)
Viola Davis over Penelope Cruz (her year is next year)
Wall-E over Milk for Original Screenplay
Wall-E over the Dark Knight in Sound (take away the sound in Wall-E and you have a silent movie, it is what made that movie incredible.)
“Down to Earth” (WALL-E) – Song
“Waltzing with Bashir” – Foreign-Language
The acotrs who won the BAFTAs last year also went on the win Oscars. So I think Mickey Rouke will win for “The Wrestler” instead of Sean Penn.