With just two days to go before the Oscar nominations are finally announced, I’m resisting the urge to change any of my predictions, which went to press in EW before the Producers Guild or Directors Guild nominees were revealed. Can The Dark Knight bump The Reader out of the screenplay running? Will someone like Richard Jenkins or Melissa Leo fight his or her way into the acting races? Will the Academy overrule campaigns and put Kate Winslet for The Reader or Dev Patel for Slumdog Millionaire in the lead-acting category? I’m standing by my predictions, listed again below. Last year I lucked out with 34 out of 40 correct. Let’s see which of you can score the most this year. Post your predictions and I’ll give a shout-out to the OscarWatcher who gets the most right.
Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Director
David Fincher
Christopher Nolan
Ron Howard
Gus Van Sant
Danny Boyle
Actor
Clint Eastwood
Frank Langella
Sean Penn
Brad Pitt
Mickey Rourke
Actress
Anne Hathaway
Sally Hawkins
Angelina Jolie
Meryl Streep
Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin
Robert Downey, Jr.
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Heath Ledger
Dev Patel
Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz
Viola Davis
Taraji P. Henson
Marisa Tomei
Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Original Screenplay
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall-E
Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
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I hope you’re right about all of those Mr. Karger. Unfortunately, I have a bad feeling that The Reader is going to take The Dark Knight’s spot in Best Picture. Which is unfair. Let’s face it. The Reader is Oscar bait, and not very good Oscar bait at that.
Best Picture:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director:
David Fincher- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard- Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan- The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant- Milk
Danny Boyle- Slumdog Millionaire
Best Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella- Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn- Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke- The Wrestler
Best Actress:
Anne Hathaway- Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins- Happy Go Lucky
Angelina Jolie- Changeling
Meryl Streep- Doubt
Kate Winslet- Revolutionary Road
Best Supporting Actor:
Robert Downey Jr.- Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman- Doubt
Heath Ledger- The Dark Knight
Dev Patel- Slumdog Millionaire
Michael Shannon- Revolutionary Road
Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams- Doubt
Penelope Cruz- Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis- Doubt
Marisa Tomei- The Wrestler
Kate Winslet- The Reader
I ran out of room, so here is the rest of my predictions:
Best Original Screenplay:
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
The Visitor
Wall-E
Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
I could see ‘Austrailia’ (even with mixed reviews, and some outstanding) getting a ‘Best Picture’ nod…the upset nomination?
Gran Torino should be nominated for best picture over Milk.
Sounds about right.
I would venture that Button gets the most noms alongside TDK but without any acting noms. Replace Pitt with Richard Jenkins and also Henson with Amy Adams, methinks.
I agree with most of your nomination guesses, except I think, Best Picture will look like this.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall.E. (i know, i know, but it shoulnd’t matter, a best picture is a best picture no matter what form.)
The same as your predictions except for best picture replace Frost/Nixon with WALL-E. If it is a contest of people’s five best films of 2008 WALL-E will probably make it in.
Dave, my predictions are the same as yours but replace Happy-Go-Lucky with The Wrestler for orig screenplay, and replace Reader with Dark Knight for adap screenplay. SO tempted to throw in Leo (Melissa not DiCaprio, clearly) over Jolie but I’m sticking with Jolie too… So those’re my thoughts, read more at http://www.dickiepicks.com if anyonne would like.
I only disagree with Taraji P. Henson in BSA. I don’t believe Ben Button has the strength to get her that nomination. I also disagree that Clint Eastwood will make it in. Sure, he’s almost like Judi Dench, don’t bet against him, but I think that Leo DiCaprio may make it, but more likely Richard Jenkins. Also, I’d like to see Kate Winslet only nominated for The Reader. She’s great in Revolutionary Road, but I’d like to see her nomination for The Reader in BA.
No way “Australia” would get the fifth spot. I don’t think it has that many fans. I could see “The Reader”, “Revolutionary Road” or “Doubt” upsetting though.
I like your predictions, except I think Dev Patel will get a Best Supporting Actor nod. Although I agree with u that it’s a lead role.
I really hope Wall-E sneaks into Best Picture. I just don’t see any of the others having the long-term, lasting impact that film will have.
No chance for Austraila . If there is an upset nom it will be The Dark Knight or Vicky Christina Barcelona.
Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Director
David Fincher
Christopher Nolan
Mike Leigh
Gus Van Sant
Danny Boyle
Actor
Clint Eastwood
Frank Langella
Sean Penn
Brad Pitt
Mickey Rourke
Actress
Anne Hathaway
Sally Hawkins
Angelina Jolie
Meryl Streep
Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin
Robert Downey, Jr.
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Heath Ledger
Dev Patel
Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz
Viola Davis
Taraji P. Henson
Marisa Tomei
Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Original Screenplay
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall-E
Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Picture (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon) Milk, Slumdog Millionaire)
Director (Danny Boyle, David Fincher Ron Howard, Christopher Nolan, Gus Van Sant)
Lead Actor (Clint Eastwood, Frank Langella, Sean Penn, Brad Pitt, Mickey Rourke)
Lead Actress (Anne Hathaway, Sally Hawkins, Angelina Jolie, Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet for Rev. Road)
Supporting Actor (Josh Brolin, Robert Downey Jr., Philip Seymour Hoffman, Heath Ledger, Dev Patel)
Supporting Actress (Amy Adams, Penelope Cruz, Viola Davis, Marisa Tomei, Kate Winslet for The Reader)
Original Screenplay (Milk, Rachel Getting Married, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Wall-E, The Wrestler)
Adapted Screenplay (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, The Reader, Slumdog Millionaire)
Those were almost my exact predictions!! The only difference was Amy Adams instead of Marisa Tomei
I have a feeling REVOLUTIONARY ROAD will edge out DARK KNIGHT for best picture……
Best Picture
Ben Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon
The Wrestler
And TDK will totally get a best adapted Screenplay nom
Ok my predictions are the exact same EXCEPT that i’m going with my gut and i’m saying Kate Winslet will be nominated as Best Actress for The Reader and that Amy Adams will take her place in the Supporting Actress race… it’s possible.
Best Picture:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director:
Danny Boyle
David Fincher
Ron Howard
Christopher Nolan
Gus Van Saint
Best Actor:
Clint Eastwood
Frank Langella
Sean Penn
Brad Pitt
Mickey Rourke
Best Actress:
Anne Hathaway
Sally Hawkins
Melissa Leo
Meryl Streep
Kate Winslet (Rev. Road)
Best Sup. Actor:
Josh Brolin
Robert Downey Jr.
Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Heath Ledger
Dev Patel
Best Sup. Actress:
Amy Adams
Penelope Cruz
Viola Davis
Marisa Tomei
Kate Winslet (Reader)
Original Screenplay:
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall-E
Adapted Screenplay:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
BEST PICTURE
Frost/Nixon
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Revolutionary Road
BEST DIRECTOR
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Wrestler
BEST ACTOR
Frank Langella
Sean Penn
Brad Pitt
Mickey Rourke
Clint Eastwood
BEST ACTRESS
Melissa Leo
Angelina Jolie
Meryl Streep
Anne Hathaway
Kate Winslet (rev. road)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger
Michael Shannon
Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Dev Patel
Josh Brolin
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams
Viola Davis
Kate Winslet (the Reader)
Taraji P. Henson
Penelope Cruz
O. Screenplay: Rachel Getting Married, Milk, Wall-E, Vick Cristina Barcelona, Happy Go Lucky
A. Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire, The Reader, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road, Doubt,
Picture:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Gran Torino
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Director:
David Fincher
Christopher Nolan
Ron Howard
Gus Van Sant
Danny Boyle
Actor:
Richard Jenkins
Frank Langella
Sean Penn
Brad Pitt
Mickey Rourke
Actress:
Anne Hathaway
Sally Hawkins
Angelina Jolie
Meryl Streep
Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
Supporting Actor:
Josh Brolin
Robert Downey, Jr.
James Franco
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Heath Ledger
Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams
Penelope Cruz
Viola Davis
Marisa Tomei
Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Original Screenplay:
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall-E
The Wrestler
Adapted Screenplay:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Since the entire Acadmey can vote for nominees in the best picture race this is most likely where an upset may occur. And sadly, if one of these predicted nominees doesn’t make the cut it will be The Dark Knight. It may not be as popular with older academy members. If Dark Knight isn’t the second nominee announced when the Best Picture nominees are read, I would predict either The Reader or Revolutionary Road to take the spot.
The other predictions seem like a lock. I would love it if Jenkins and DiCaprio can upset, but it doesn’t seem likely.
PICTURE:Slumdog, Benjamin Button, Milk, Frost/Nixon, Dark Knight-
DIRECTOR: Boyle, Fincher, Nolan, Van Sant, Afronofsky-
ACTOR: Penn, Rourke, Langella, Pitt, Jenkins-
ACTRESS: Winslet (Rev. Road), Streep (not for Mamma Mia!), Hathaway, Hawkins, Scott-Thomas-
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Ledger, Brolin, Hoffman, Downey Junior, Patel-
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Winslet (Reader), Cruz, Adams, Davis, Tomei-
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Vicky Cristina Barcelona, WALL~E, Milk, Happy Go Lucky, Rachel Getting Married-
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Slumdog, Benjamin Button, Frost Nixon, Doubt, The Reader
Picture: Button
Slumdog
Milk
Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Actor: Sean Penn
Mickey Rourke
Frank Langella
Richard Jenkins
Brad Pitt
Actress: Meryl Streep
Anne Hathaway
Kate Winslet (RR)
Sally Hawkins
Kristin Scott-Thomas
Director: Danny Boyle
David Fincher
Gus Van Sant
Christopher Nolan
Darren Aronofsky
S Actor: Heath Ledger
Robert Downey Jr
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Josh Brolin
Dev Patel
S Actress: Kate Winslet (Reader)
Penelope Cruz
Amy Adams
Viola Davis
Marisa Tomei
Original SP: WALL-E
The Wrestler
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Milk
The Visitor
Adapted SP: Button
Slumdog
Reader
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Overall, I agree with your predictions. However, I would make the following changes:
BEST PICTURE
I think you’re giving far too much credit to The Dark Knight and Milk. I don’t think either of them will get nominated. (Neither of them were nominated by the Golden Globes for Best Picture, and neither of them won the Critics’ Choice Best Picture Award-if that’s any indication.) Instead, I wouldn’t be surprised if Vicky Cristina Barcelona (the Golden Globe winner for Best Picture), Happy-Go-Lucky, The Reader or Doubt).
BEST ACTOR
This is not Clint’s year. Therefore, I don’t expect him to get nominated. Instead, either Leo DiCaprio or Colin Farrell will get nominated.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
I don’t expect Robert Downey Jr. to get nominated. (Tropic Thunder not that strong of a movie.) Instead, I wouldn’t be surprised if either Michael Shannon or Michael Sheen to get nominated.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Scratch Taraji P. Henson and replace with Amy Adams.
Solid picks, Dave. I’ve been saying all along, though, that as far as Best Picture noms go, “Button” is somewhat vulnerable (nobody loves it), as are other so-called locks “Milk” and “Frost” (both are smallish). If one gets left off, I’d guess it’d be “Frost,” since it lacks “Button”’s starpower and high visilibity and because neither the movie nor Langella has been winning awards the way “Milk” and Penn have. I’m also thinking that Brad and Angelina are both pretty vulnerable. What I hope happens is that both are left off to make room for Jenkins and Leo. It’d be so righteous if Best Actor had two awesome vets (Eastwood and Jenkins) and Best Actress had two rocking indie chicks (Hawkins and Leo). Here’s hoping that’s how it plays out, and that “Dark Knight” gets Picture and Director noms!!
I really hope Milk makes the best picture list and not Gran Torino.
(upset nominations, perhaps)
Picture: Australia
Actor: Richard Jenkins (Visitor)
Actress: Kiera Knightly (Duchess) or Nicole Kidman (Australia)
Supporting Actor: Brandon Walters (aborignal boy in Australia)
Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan in Changleing
Art Direction/Cinematography: Australia
Costumes: Australia or The Duchess