The very astute Sasha Stone over at Awards Daily has put forth her theory that this year’s lead acting categories are wide open, in contrast to the Best Picture race, which clearly seems to be going Slumdog Millionaire’s way. I couldn’t agree more, and I found a interesting statistic to prove the point. In the last five years, every eventual lead-acting Oscar winner, with the exception of La Vie en Rose’s Marion Cotillard last year, won the Broadcast Critics award and a Golden Globe before picking up the big prize. So in a sense, all the other nine winners — Daniel Day-Lewis, Helen Mirren, Forest Whitaker, Reese Witherspoon, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Hilary Swank, Jamie Foxx, Charlize Theron, and Sean Penn — were basically foregone conclusions come Oscar night. This year, however, is a completely different story. For the first time since 2003, the BFCA winners and Globe winners were different performers in both lead-acting races. Back then, Far From Heaven’s Julianne Moore won the BFCA prize, while Chicago’s Renee Zellweger and The Hours‘ Nicole Kidman (the eventual Oscar winner) scored the Globes, and neither the BFCA Best Actor victor (Gangs of New York’s Daniel Day-Lewis) nor the Globe honorees (About Schmidt’s Jack Nicholson or Chicago’s Richard Gere) forecasted the surprise Oscar winner, The Pianist’s Adrien Brody.
This year the same thing is happening. Sean Penn won the BFCA but couldn’t repeat at the Globes, who recognized Mickey Rourke instead, while Anne Hathaway and Meryl Streep tied at the BFCAs only to lose to Kate Winslet at the Globes. At this point (even though the nominations are still a week off), Penn seems like the best bet amongst the Academy but is by no means a lock. Meanwhile, the actress race strikes me as a complete toss-up between Winslet, Hathaway, Streep, and even a total wild-card like this week’s other Globe winner, Sally Hawkins. I’m dreading making my final prediction on this one. But whoever wins that statuette on Feb. 22, I can guarantee it’ll be close.
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Good story, but I think Mickey Rourke deserves the trophy for sure, I liked Sean Penn in Milk, but Rourke really dominated the picture. It was a good year for performances and a down year for overall great movies.
Hurray for an incredibly strong Best Actress race! Best Actor is strong too, but that category has been strong in recent years anyway. This is the first time in a while that Best Actress is stronger, but this is also the first time in a while there have been SO MANY fantastic films in one year. I just saw “The Visitor” last night and loved it…and it’s still only 6th on my personal list of favorites. Such an exciting year for cinema, and whoever gets their Oscar can be sure they have earned it.
Watch out for Clint Eastwood for Gran Torino in the Best Actor race.
Yeah, Eastwood is going to a HUGE contender in Actor…if he’s nominated.
I think Hathaway’s chances were hurt big-time not winning the Globe. She needs big-time momentum to overtake the buzz that Winslet and Streep are underrewarded. That being said, if Hathaway can somehow pull off a SAG win, then she’s back in it.
And Sally Hawkins? No way.
I am really pulling for Meryl Streep for Best Actress in Doubt. I thought that she was absolutely amazing, and she definitely gave one of the best female performances in 2008. I’m also pulling for Cate Blanchett, but she won’t be nominated.
I’m thinking it will be Mickey Rourke with the Best Actor win. Best Actress seems a bit harder. I think Kate Winslet is coming away with an award, but I don’t know if it will be Best Actress for Revolutionary Road or Supporting Actress for The Reader. I don’t think she’ll win both (although I kinda want her to). If she wins supporting, I think Meryl will take Best Actress.
I agree Best Actress is a toss-up between Streep, Winslet and Hathaway. How do you choose? They were all great. First-time nominee Hathaway will be up against two of Oscar’s biggest “losers”. If nominated twice, this will be 7 nominations for Winslet with no wins, and she seems a lock to win Supporting Actress for “The Reader.” That leaves Streep, with 15 nominations and only 2 wins (the last being in 1982). She’s more than due for another win.
I am pulling for Winslet to win Best Actress in Revolutionary Road, I would really like her to win both categories, but that is really not likely. It would be great to see her shatter two Oscar records, youngest actress with 7 nominations and only actor to win both lead and supporting in the same year. She truly deserves it.
it’ll be Mickey Rourke–the Academy loves a comeback story, and Rourke obviously went through a lot physically and emotionally in making the picture. I thought that Penn’s performance was great, too, but at the same time I thought he film was a rather flat. And I didn’t find anything particularly challenging in Penn’s performance, either.
I think it might be Kate’s year. Meryl’s chances might be hurt by a general assessment that the film still felt too much like the play (and the play, including Cherry Jones in that role, of higher quality), and Anne’s chances might be hurt by too few people willing to sit all the way through the film (the second half — the wedding/reception — took “realism” so seriously that it was downright dull and grating, but Hathaway’s best and most subtle moments came in the second-to-last scene).
I agree that Sean Penn was amazing in Milk….and the limited release of The Wrestler has prevented me so far from seeing Mickey Rourke….BUT I was blown away by Clint Eastwood when I saw Gran Torino last weekend! I love my movies…but I usually manage to keep them in perspective emotionally….Clint had me tearing up like a baby in that film’s last 15 mins. Add to that the fact that it’s reportedly his last acting role and I’m positive that he’s got to be the sentimental favorite at this point!
The reason 2002 was the last interesting race to defy these trends is because it was the last race under the old Oscar schedule. Since moving up nominations to late January, Oscar Voters only see the movies already winning awards, and since moving up the ceremony to late February, Oscar voters vote while the deafening buzz is still defining their every move. Adrian Brody won after voters actually SAW all the movies. The reason these races are boring is because the Oscars are now more boring, predetermined, and defined by the nothingness that is industry palm-reading than ever berfore.
Did Paul Blart: Mall Cop open anywhere in 2008?
I think it’s more between Winslet and Hathaway for Best actress. I’ve seen Doubt and believe me, IMO Meryl does not deserve her 3rd oscar for that performance. She overacted the whole way through. one of my least favorite performances of hers. She got mixed reviews for the performance too. I think Kate Winslet has the best shot in lead with Anne Hathaway being her biggest competition.
If Clint is nominated for Best Actor, and he may be..he will win. He never has won that award and for his years of work he deserves it. He’s an American legend. Mickey Rourke could take it, but I think Sean Penn’s chances are gone away with the wind. He already has one anyhoo.
Best Actress is a toss-up, but I think Winslet is due. Streep is great, but she already has two of them and will have more chances.
The Supporting Actor will be Heath. Supporting Actress could be anyone.
I want Kate to win, I don’t care how good the others are (as wrong as that may sound). She deserves her night with Oscar in the leading lady category.
Its time for Kate Winslet to win her first Oscar for Lead Actress. She derserves this. Im soo excited for her I really want this to be her year.
correction: Daniel Day-Lewis did NOT win the Golden Globe for ‘Gangs of NY’. His first and only GG came last year for ‘There Will Be Blood’.
GO KATE!
I love how this is all treated as a “race”, as if the leads are constantly changing. Aren’t the votes in yet? Isn’t it kinda set in stone, with us all still speculating, this way no THIS way, etc.? I just think it’s funny. Love it.
I think either Meryl or Kate will win Best Actress. no one else.
the Oscar nominations haven’t been announced yet, so the votes/ballots are not in yet, so the winners haven’t been decided yet, so it is a race. duh.
I’m perfectly okay with either Winslet, Streep, or Hawkins. I’m glad Hathaway gave a good performance, but it’s certainly not worth the raves. I feel like she’s getting so much attention just because the role is the opposite of what she’s been doing for the past five year. Good performance? Yes. Oscar-worthy? Nope. Even what’s her name (Jolie) gave a better performance.
I really think Anne Hathaway’s chances were hurt by the horrendous, unwatchable speech she made at BFCA. Did you all see that? That was so Gwyneth-like!?!
I hope that Kate wins Best Supporting Actress and Meryl….Best Actress; she was outstanding in “Doubt” and is long overdue for her 3rd acting honor at the Oscars……..Anne can wait and Kate is still young enough to win Best Actress later in her career… Meryl is now almost 60 plus she had a blockbuster movie this summer with “Mamma Mia” which shows that she could sing as well and garnerd a Grammy nomination… Go MERYL!
If Mickey Rourke does not win for the Wrestler it would be a crime.
I also think that the best actress category is between Winslet and Hathaway. I’m a huge fan of Meryl Streep but I believe her chances are beginning to fade. My hope is definitely on Kate Winslet winning, finally! While Hathaway’s performance was good, I honestly don’t think you can equate it to what Winslet did in Revolutionary Road. While the reviews for that movie were mixed, you cannot deny the overwhelming performance by Winslet. Like gokatego said, I believe Hathaway is getting such tremendous praise because this is something different from her. Even though Winslet is due I don’t believe that’s the reason to give her the award. Give it to her because she gave amazing performances in both “The Reader” & “Revolutionary Road.”
meryl streep, best lead actress for “doubt”
clint eastwood, best lead actor for “gran torino”
that would really be sweet and poignant, and both well deserved…
Here are some nice predictions:
2009 Oscar Prediction: Best Actor (Female)
http://celeb9.com/slideshow/24/2009-oscar-prediction%3A-best-actor-female/154/
2009 Oscar Prediction: Best Actor (Male)
http://celeb9.com/slideshow/23/2009-oscar-prediction-%3A-individual-races/147/sean-penn-%3A-best-actor
I am really pulling for Kate Winslet to win an Oscar – it would be awesome if she won TWO Oscars, because she totally deserves it for both performances, but I honestly don’t see think the Academy would want that to happen.
However, if Anne Hathaway beats out Kate and Meryl for a Best Actress Oscar, it would be a huge crime – Hathaway’s performance is good, and far better than the mediocre performances she usually gives (which is why she’s getting so much attention), but no WAY is she anywhere near in the same league as Kate and Meryl, whose performances have far more depth. And frankly, the Brits feel the same way too, because they didn’t even nominate Hathaway for a BAFTA. I think that really hurt Hathaway’s chances, and now hopefully either Kate or Meryl will win.