Even though two of the most reliable Oscar predictors (the Producers
Guild and Directors Guild nominees) haven’t been announced yet, my
bosses at EW asked me to come up with my forecasted nominees for this
year’s Academy Awards. You can see my predictions for the eight major
races here, but here are my calls in the three
biggest categories.
BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ACTOR
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
So, am I on the money here or am I way off? What will my greatest oversight be when the nominees are revealed on Jan. 22?
Comments (1-30) of 153 Add your comment
I really think Revolutionary Road could still make a surprise appearance in the Best Picture category instead of Button. However, maybe I don’t think this as much as I hope this.
I could see ‘frost/nixon’ being replaced by ‘gran turino’ for best picture.
i think you are right on the money… what a great year for movies!
best picture guesses are all solid; for actor, i think richard jenkins might replace brad pitt; for actress, kirstin scott thomas replaces angelina jolie (yes there will be a brangelina backlash).
I think Wall-E could get in over Frist Nixon. I think Waal E will probably gert a lot of number one rankings while I am not sure Frost/Nixon will.
Replace Angelina Jolie with Melissa Leo and Clint Eastwood with Leonardo DiCaprio. The rest seem like solid bets.
The winners SHOULD be:
Best Picture: Wall-E
Best Director: Kelly Reichardt
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke
Best Actress: Sally Hawkins
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz
Best Original Screenplay: Synecdoche, New York
Best Adapted Screenplay: Frost/Nixon
Best Documentary: Man on Wire
Best Animated Feature: Wall-E
Best Cinematography: Let the Right One In
I think you’re mostly right, Dave (although I’ll be appalled if Jolie gets nominated for her blatant showpiece performance), but I’m not convinced The Dark Knight will get so many nominations. There’s a strong chance that Heath Ledger may not have been nominated if he didn’t die tragically; the Academy simply frowns on comic book adaptations. It’s different than the Lord of the Rings movies–those were based on widely beloved fantasy NOVELS. These are comic books, which are often sneered at in the upper circles, so Ledger aside (and maybe a sympathy screenplay nod), I’m not sold on it, even if it is the second highest-grossing film of all time.
as much as i LOVE the dark knight and think it deserves a nominaton for Best Picture.. i dont think it will, its been on mostly everyons top 10 lists of 2008, but y didnt the Globes regognize it? isnt that a hurtful sign for its chances, dave?
I don’t think Milk will be nominated for Best Picture – I think Revolutionary Road has a better shot. And I don’t think Angelina Jolie will be nominated; I’d guessing Cate Blanchett will get that slot. I’d be surprised if your Best Actor guesses aren’t right on the money.
the dark knight hell yeah should get nominated for best picture.
I agree with a few of these nutters on WALL-E being nominated for Best Picture instead of Frost/Nixon. I have a few great reasons for this: 1) It would most definitely get the viewership ratins higher come Oscar night with two (three if Benjamin Button fares well in the following weeks) huge box office successes in running for best picture. 2)WALL-E has been winning a whole lot more precursor awards for that category than Frost/Nixon. 3)WALL-E is simply a better film than Frost/Nixon. If you weigh both of them againt each other you have WALL-E kicking Nixon’s butt.
Now if my predictions (which you can see on my blog (http://wolfblitzerarchive.blogspot.com/) are right then we are looking at one of the most epic Oscar races in history. Critic favorite (Slumdog Millionaire), political character biopic (Milk), Heartwarming Scifi Romance (WALL-E), Epic Fantasy (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), and crowd-pleasing crime drama (The Dark Knight) all against one another. One word:Awesome
I have to agree with Dan and Jason…I just hope the Academy folks can figure it out for themselves!
I agree with a few of these nutters on WALL-E being nominated for Best Picture instead of Frost/Nixon. I have a few great reasons for this: 1) It would most definitely get the viewership ratins higher come Oscar night with two (three if Benjamin Button fares well in the following weeks) huge box office successes in running for best picture. 2)WALL-E has been winning a whole lot more precursor awards for that category than Frost/Nixon. 3)WALL-E is simply a better film than Frost/Nixon. If you weigh both of them againt each other you have WALL-E kicking Nixon’s butt.
Now if my predictions (which you can see on my blog (http://wolfblitzerarchive.blogspot.com/ ) are right then we are looking at one of the most epic Oscar races in history. Critic favorite (Slumdog Millionaire), political character biopic (Milk), Heartwarming Scifi Romance (WALL-E), Epic Fantasy (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), crowd-pleasing crime drama (The Dark Knight) all against one another. One word: Awesome
I really feel a huge snub coming when The Dark Knight is not nominated for best picture.The other four I feel are guaranteed and the fifth spot I see going to Revolutionary Road.It’s a shame too, because not only is Dark Knight entertaining but it also has more to say than any other film this year other than maybe Wall-E which is also gonna get screwed only because it’s an animated movie.
I only doubled it because my blog didn’t come out right the first time. apologies to everyone who loves movies.
Also, The Dark Knight is fully diserving of a nomination. The academy doesn’t hate comic book films. They hate bad movies and love good ones.
The Dark Knight nor Milk will get nominated for a Best Picture award. Revolutionary Road and Wall-E will take their place. Wall-E will get a Best Pic nod if nothing else.
There’s no way a best doc award will ever go to something that doesn’t deal with the Holocaust.
Finally let me say this: Revolutionary road will not get nominated. It simply is not good enough. There are better films like the ones listed by Mr. Karger.
I would still love to see Lena Olin get nominated for The Reader — that peformance shouldn’t be overlooked.
I ilked Viola Davis in Doubt as well — they both show what you can do with 10 minutes on film!
So, come on Dave and show Lena some love!
I would take out Angelina out of Lead Actress. Take out Clint Eastwood and put Leo in his place.
Maybe take out the Dark Knight or Frost/Nixon for Revolutionary Road or Doubt and take out Brad Pitt for Leo DiCaprio, Dave, the actresses are fine.
This may sound crazy but I think Meryl might be recognized but for Mama Mia, not Doubt. I know, it’s nuts but there’s a pattern for the Oscars often nominating folks for a different performacne than expected. Remember 2007 when DiCaprio was up for Best Actor, not for “The Departed” but “Blood Diamond.” Streep might get a double nod in one and since “Mia” made a lot more money, she might get the nod for that instead.
Why are you publishing this now if you admit, in your opening, that your opinion isn’t as informed as it should be? I’d rather wait to hear.
look, most of you are probably not up to the times but most critics don’t like revolutionary road accept for the performances. They might get nominated but the film won’t. Rotten Tomatoes gave it a 64%. That is not oscar material.
Going out on a limb here, but I think Richard Jenkins will replace Eastwood in the Best Actor category. I know the Academy has a love affair with Clint, BUT in recent years they’ve come up with some big, welcome surprises in the acting categories. I’m thinking specifically of Tommy Lee Jones last year and Keisha Castle-Hughes several years back.
Also, as much as I hate to say it, I fear that “Revolutionary Road” will replace “The Dark Knight” in the Director and Best Picture categories. It won’t be so much because of the Academy’s issue with “comic book” films, but it will be because of the way Sam Mendes was embraced for “American Beauty.” The Academy will want to reward him (with at least a nomination) and the film itself. I hope I’m wrong though. Dave’s Best Picture nominees are what SHOULD be nominated.
I’m praying Dev Patel gets a nomination! What a performance! In fact, as long as “Slumdog” racks up as many nominations as possible, I’ll be THRILLED!
Either Wall-E or The Dark Knight will get nominated, not both. I think that Wall-E will end up taking that slot (better general feeling toward it leading to more #1 votes). I also suspect that Doubt and Revolutionary Road will be competing with Milk and Frost-Nixon, and any of those four could be interchanged. Also, don’t be so quick to count out Clint Eastwood’s films: Either Changeling or Gran Torino could end up crashing some other film’s party based on the strengths of their director’s name and lead performances alone.
Personally, I would love to see Rachel Getting Married get a shot at Best Picture, but I think it’s too “small”.
I think you can forget about Angelina Jolie–i’d replace her with melissa leo. You might also see Michelle Williams in there for Wendy and Lucy instead of either Sally Hawkins or Meryl Streep. and i’d replace Brad Pitt with Richard jenkins. i also don’t hink you’ll see The Dark Knight in the final 5–it’ll be a smaller film such as Frozen River, Doubt, Rachel Getting Married or Revolutionary Road.
You people are driving me crazy. It doesn’t matter if the film is small or if it’s big. All that matters is that they are the best of the year. Got that. Juno went to being a box office success. Would they take that nomination away because of that? NO! It’s about quality.
Ok, aside from the fact that Wall-e was entirely over-rated, but not for good reason, that the main character and his love interest are among the greatest characters in modern film making history, this has been the best year for film making in a very long time, right when our battered country needs it most! please just don’t pick a mediocre film as you always do, academy,, to fill a best picture slot with no chance, when there are dozens of movies that deserve to fight for it. Get it right, and I don’t think I can remember a more exiting race in my lifetime!!!!
I hate stupid people.
As far as I am concerned the best picture nominees are all locked, except for The Dark Knight, which I could see replaced by The Reader (a critically-okay broad movie just like The Hours) or WALL-E. I think Revolutionary Road is dead. And Frost/Nixon is a sure thing, you idiots.
I hope to God that Richard Jenkins replaces Brad Pitt. The other four are probably right where they belong on the list, though.
Problem is, with all the great performances, someone’s going to get edged out of the nominations, and I think that will be Angelina Jolie. Bye! I doubt she’ll be the number one pick on many nomination ballots, so Melissa Leo should fill her spot nicely.
By the way, if history repeats itself, I think this will be the year Kate Winslet wins for The Reader (Supporting Actress).