Yesterday I remarked on the omission of Doubt and Revolutionary Road from this year’s American Film Institute honorees and mentioned how I considered the top 10 lists from the AFI, National Board of Review, and Broadcast Film Critics Association combined the most reliable bellwether of eventual Academy success. In case any of you were wondering, here are the films that made it onto at least two of those tallies in the past three years, with each year’s Oscar nominees for Best Picture in bold type. You’ll see what I’m talking about.
2007
Three lists: No Country for Old Men, Michael Clayton, Juno, Into the Wild
Two lists: There Will Be Blood, Atonement, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Sweeney Todd, The Kite Runner
2006
Three lists: Little Miss Sunshine, Babel, Letters from Iwo Jima
Two lists: The Departed, Dreamgirls, United 93, The Devil Wears Prada, Blood Diamond, Notes on a Scandal
(note: The Queen was ineligible for the AFI but made it onto the BFCA list)
2005
Three lists: Crash, Brokeback Mountain, Good Night and Good Luck, Capote, Munich
Two lists: Walk the Line, A History of Violence, King Kong, Syriana, Memoirs of a Geisha
So what does this all mean for this year’s race? Let’s look at the tallies.
Three lists: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Milk, Frost/Nixon, The Dark Knight, Wall-E, The Wrestler
Two lists: Slumdog Millionaire, Gran Torino, Changeling
The case could easily be made that the five Best Picture nominees will come from the above nine films. Doubt, meanwhile, was only recognized by the BFCA, while Revolutionary Road was ignored by all three groups. If history repeats, then both films may already be out of the running.
UPDATE: The very savvy Cynthia Swartz, executive at 42West and orchestrator of Doubt and Revolutionary Road’s Academy campaigns, sent me the following response: “Here is another piece of history that totally rebuts your history. In the past 50 years, 60 films have received at least 3 acting nominations. 52 of them were nominated for Best Picture. Of the 8 that were not, only 4 also had a screenplay nomination. And since there are no actors in the NBR, the BFCA or on the AFI board, I will go with my history.”
Well, we’ll see which history wins out in a month, won’t we? I’m a big fan of both Doubt and Revolutionary Road, so I hope they’re not totally over. I’m merely presenting the facts here.
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oscar nominees for best pic this year should be as follows:
Dark Knight, Slumdog Millionaire, Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon and Milk
end of story. if WALL-E gets a nom for best picture then the academy will lose all credibility…. best animated maybe, but best picture? seriously? please…. give me a break
Actually, if the Academy recognizes THE DARK KNIGHT over WALL-E, then it loses all credibility.
Wall-e is awesome alright.
The dark knight is awesome too. Stop dissing the best movies ever!
Dave, I think you are so wrong on this. The AFI does not matter to the Academy Awards! Just look at The Departed, it one BEST PICTURE and was not included in the Top Ten AFI’s list. Never count Leo out, he always comes back punching!
The Dark Knight stunk. Even the Golden Globes had enough sense not to nominate it. I hope the Academy follows suit.
Dark Knight, Wall-E, Benjamin Button, Slumdog, and Milk
looks solid to me
It’s really hilarious when prognosticators look at past behaviors as predictors of what can happen, particularly when the precursors are obscure and the formulations are just weird (“If you just take two from Column A and add something from Column B, you’ll discover that “Frost/Nixon” is a slam dunk,” etc. ) One could probably invent some equally arcane method to prove the opposite. (“The best film of the year according to The New York Times is nominated six out nine years.) There may be a few obvious omens, like the Golden Globes, or the DGA, but really, the rest is just silly.
I’ve never felt like Leonardo was a great actor. He’s a decent actor, who has a great work ethic, and maintains his relationships. The Majority of his best movies were good because of the actors that supported him.
Tom Hanks and Christopher Walken(Catch me if you can) brought amazing charisma. Daniel Day Lewis as the butcher in Gangs of New York.
So I’m not surprised that Revolutionary Road is not at the top of people’s lists.
I would be kind of surprised if The Dark Knight doesn’t get nominated for Best Picture and Best Director. Raiders of the Lost Ark and The Sixth Sense, two of the biggest blockbusters, didn’t get nominated for Best Picture at the Golden Globes. They both went on to get nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. Golden Globes doesn’t always have something to do with what the Academy chooses or doesn’t choose. To be different for the first time in about, 5 years or so, they may decide to throw in a blockbuster. The Dark Knight is the perfect blockbuster to throw in there. It’s got the critical acclaim, box office success, great cast and great director to make it’s way to the top. Just because it’s based on a superhero doesn’t mean it’s ineligible for Oscar recognition.
Have any of you actually seen all of these films?? How can anyone (who is not a critic) comment? Most of these films have not had a wide release as of yet and therefore haven’t been seen by most. So let’s save this discussion for mid-January when ALL of the above films have had a wide release.
Wall should get nominated for best pic. There was more acting and story in that animated feature than most of the films out this year. It may be animated but It has to be the best film I’ve seen this year and I’ve seen many. And Beauty and the beast got nominated for best pic and I think wall-e was even better. Dark knight was great too. I hate how only dark dramas can be nominated for best pic. The academy needs to change it up, comedy, animation can be just as good if not better
I have seen five of these films (Milk, Slumdog Millionaire, Wall-E, Dark Knight, and Changeling). All five are good, so it definitely would not be a travesty if they got nominated for best pictures. Milk, Slumdog, Dark Knight, and Wall-E definitely deserve the nom, with the 5th one open for me so far. Right now, I would love to see Rachel Getting Married or The Visitor sneak in there, but that probably will not happen. I will have the see the others on the list to truly decide.
The Dark Knight
The sterling blockbuster.
Milk
The social commentary.
Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The pedigree film.
Slumdog Millionaire
The indie winner.
Frost/Nixon
The political statement.
Leo DiCaprio has been recognised a couple of times this decade for his work – so that will certainly ensure people watch the film. I think he’ll make it.
In my mind he gave the best performances in The Aviator and The Departed. I agree that neither Doubt or Revolutionary Road look likely at the moment, that said, neither did Atonement at this point last year.
Both films cited are likely to play well with actors, so I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them turns up on nomination morning.
yes DOUBT and REVOLUTIONARY ROAD are dead, but they have been for a while what with the less-than-stunning reviews for the former (Streep is Streep, but that’s still not quite Cherry Jones) and the chilly reception in some screening-room quarters for the latter.
Dave, i’m assuming you do realize that BENJAMIN BUTTON has the best picture win locked – all it needs is the more-than-decent reviews and box office it’s destined to get, and it’s clinched the win (it’s certain to get the most nominations too, a decent harbinger of Oscar success.) It’s really as in the bag as TITANIC was 11 years ago or FORREST GUMP was 14 years ago.
The other nominees will be SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, MILK, THE DARK KNIGHT and GRAN TORINO (box office and reviews and legend) or FROST/NIXON.
I have seen both films and to be honest, the acting is much better than the overall film in both cases. Revolutionary Road was a little slow, while Doubt was a great film, just character centered. Either film could easily warrant a nomination, for the acting alone; however, this year there are too many other great films to choose from. Not to mention that I think that the Academy will try to make room for the Dark Knight, if for no other reason than to acknowledge that it isn’t as ‘old’ as people believe. And my other nominees would be Wrestler, Benjamin Button, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire. It is a great year to be part of Fox Searchlight. But then again, what do I know?
I just saw Gran Torino over the weekend and I think Clint might have another sleeper like Million Dollar Baby. I’d hardly heard of it when it won but after I saw it I knew why it had. Gran Torino is an even better film. Don’t be surprised to see it creep in there.
Doubt is all about the acting, so it wouldn’t surprise me if it is ignored in the directing and best pic categories. As for Revolutionary Road, I’ll hold judgment until I’ve actually seen that one, but I’d be happy enough to see Leo and Kate get nominated even if the pic itself is shut out.
Is anyone *that* surprised that these two films are probably dead in the Best Picture race? One (Doubt) is clearly more of an actors’ film and doesn’t really have the spark/message/theatrics of a BP nominee. The other (Revolutionary Road) is about miserable people being miserable. Doesn’t shock me at all that it’s not warming people up.
I would venture to say there might be surprised in this Oscar Race. Since the Oscars are dominated by actors, films directed by actors or with very strong acting comebacks have been known to step forward at the last minute. So I am not counting out Gran Torino nor The Wrestler, just yet. Milk and Slumdog are both a lock, I think. Benajmin Button, if it does not connect with audiences, could end up being a surprise no-show.
Has anyone even seen previews of this on tv yet? It comes out at the same time as Ben. Button and i have yet to see one. I don’t think it is going to be a hit simply because most people don’t want to see a two hour movie where are they do is yell at each other.
Dark knight for sure!
Watch The Dark Knight full movie here!
http://missedashow.com/2008/12/batman-the-dark-knight-full-movie-watch-here/
How will the Academy lose its credibility if they nominate TDK for Best Picture? That makes no sense. When you find a film that has made $1 billion worldwide, has a 94 on Rotten Tomatoes, has 16 100s on Metacritic, has made almost every major Top 10 list, named runner-up for Best Picture and Director from the LA Critics, and has an acting Oscar already in the bag, then get back to me. The Academy will look bad if they ignore it, not nominate it.
The Dark Knight, all around, was an excellent movie. I can see why the Academy wouldn’t nominate it (because when was the last time a best picture nominee a massive box office success?) I love Kate Winslet and think she is amazing. I really hope she wins for something. Slumdog Millionaire was amazing. Hands down.
i dont care whether TDK makes best picture or not. it will go down in history, whereas all these other films will fade out within a year or so, so suck it, academy. in fact, i hope it doesn’t get nominated (might create TDK backlash)
The nominees will probably be:
Milk
Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
Gran Torino?? Oscar loves Clint Eastwood.
Oh, but Revolutionary Road just got nominated for the Golden Globes, so that might influence the results. Besides, it has so many big names attached to it, might attract more viewers than Gran Torino. So:
Milk
Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon
Gran Torino/Revolutionary Road
I read “Revolutionary Road” this summer and didn’t think it would translate to a Best Picture winner. It’s hella depressing and Mendes and Winslet have covered similar ground (American Beauty and Little Children, respectively).
I saw Doubt last night and loved it, but it’s not a directing or producing feat. It’s an acting showcase, and the 4 actors are brilliant. I’m not saying it shouldn’t be nominated for Best Picture, but if it has to be snubbed in favor of 4 acting nods instead, I’m fine with that.
I’ll jump for joy if Wall-E gets its deserved Best Picture nomination (and The Dark Knight would be nice too).
I just saw Doubt tonight and it was incredible. All four actors deserve their nods and it most definitley deserves best picture nod as well. Almost every moment of the film was so palpable. Go see it whe it goes into wide release, i dont really know why reviewers are complaining so much. as for the Streep vs. Cherry Jones comment. This is the movie version. Aka its altered from the play. A role doesnt belong to one actor alone. Streep put shivers down my spine. I sure hope the academy does not view this as “dead”. Its most very alive for me.
of the ones on the 2/3 lists that i’ve seen, i would pick the following 5:
milk
frost/nixon
dark knight
wall-e
gran torino
slumdog was very good but a little too lighthearted for best pic. i’m really looking forward to the wrestler, benjamin button and yes, revolutionary road to see how they would compare too, but that’s my top 5 for now