For this week’s issue of EW (out today) I was asked to put together a status report on this year’s Best Picture race. Now that I’ve seen virtually every contender, I assembled a roughly ranked list of the eight films I thought had a shot of getting nominated on Jan. 22. Here they are:
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. Slumdog Millionaire
3. Frost/Nixon
4. Revolutionary Road
5. Doubt
6. Milk
7. The Dark Knight
8. Australia
The story closed this past Monday; now that I’ve seen the fantastic reviews for Milk and the horrible early box office for Australia, I might have amended things a bit. (And for what it’s worth, if I had had room for 10 films, I would have added The Reader and Gran Torino as well.) I know all of you out there will have opinions on my list. So let me have it. And have a great long weekend.
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I still don’t think Benjamin Button is a lock like everyone else seems to. I will be seeing it next Wednesday so I guess I’ll find out then if it’s any good or not. Out of the movies you listed I’ve only seen The Dark Knight and Australia, I hope TDK gets in the Best Picture race, and I don’t think Australia is good enough for any major Oscar nominations (not even 8th, Torino and The Reader have much better chances)
I think it will be: “The Dark Knight”, “Slumdog Millionaire”, “Milk”, “Revolutionary Road”, and “Wall-E”. The eventual winner will be: “Slumdog Millionaire”, very uplifting and memorable. Sean Penn will win Best Actor for “Milk”, and Best Director will be the dude who did “Slumdog”.
Best Actress will finally go again to Meryl Streep for “Doubt”. Heath Ledger will take Supporting Actor from the grave.
I think that the list is quite good, but what about Wall-e?
I think Benjamin Button looks quite intriguing. The trailer is really fantastic. Every single shot is impeccable. David Fincher is truly one of the best filmmakers out there and he got completely snubbed for Zodiac.
I’m completely unenthusiastic about Frost/Nixon, MIlk, Doubt and Australia. Revolutionary Road could be alright but it just looks like yet another sad drama about a broken family.
I hope the Dark Knight gets the respect it deserves. It certainly warrants Best Picture, Supporting Actor, Director and Screenplay nominations. Personally I think it deserves to win in the Screenplay category (you can read the script online – it’s beautifully written – almost Shakespearian). Anyway, it’ll be interesting to see how things pan out.
sadly, wall-e will probably be confined to the “best animated picture” ghetto.
Milk, Slumdog Millionare, Revolutionary Road, The Reader, Doubt… maybe Batman just to get a commericial hit in there. Of course, Batman was the only one I have seen so far. It is not an Academy Award nomination worthy movie.
Man your list stinks. Anyone could have told you no on Australia based on word of mouth. Do you even work in the business?
WALL-E Enough said! No better film this year
Let’s face it–the main reason The Dark Knight did as well as it did at the box office was because Heath Ledger died. Big deal. Do you really think it would’ve done as well if Ledger was still alive. It’s the whole James Dean mystique all over again. That hardly makes for a great movie. IMO, I found the story of The Dark Knight to be predictable and way too long (even though Ledger was good in it–for what it’s worth). Plus, the movie was way too serious, considering it was based on a comic book. Couldn’t there have been some humor in it? Doesn’t the word comic derive from the word comedy? For Pete’s sake–you have a character in the movie called the Joker?!! The Dark Knight does NOT deserve to be nominated for Best Picture.
WHAT HAPPENDED TO WALL-E.you guys were the ones who said that walle was the only movie to even come close to oscar contention and now nobody talks about it
Interesting list Dave.
I mostly agree although I would change the order a bit and MILK, I believe, is definitely in the top 5.
Here are my predicts for best pic:
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
MILK
CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
FROST/NIXON
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
with
THE DARK KNIGHT and DOUBT as possible spoilers.
I don’t think AUSTRALIA will have what it takes to muscle in. But it will be interesting to see the critical and audience reception to the films that have not opened yet.
If The Dark Knight hadn’t been a good film, the box office would’ve dropped off immensely after the first weekend, and subsequent weekends (see: Quantum of Solace). But it didn’t. The word-of-mouth and repeat business were tremendous, as were the reviews (94% positive on Rotten Tomatoes, with an 8.5/10 average). Ledger was fantastic, but he was a first among equals; naturally, the showiest of the performances gets the most attention, but the ensemble was uniformly strong. And the script was as topical, thoughtful, and morally complex as the vast majority of art films in recent years. In a thin year for American films, it absolutely deserves noms for Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Supporting Actor (along with a number of technical nominations). I think we’ve seen more than enough campy, lightweight comic book/superhero films in the past decade to allow for a weightier, more emotionally and culturally resonant crime-drama-with-superhero motifs to take the stage.
The Dark Knight is because it got a lot of money, right?
As for the “James Dean mystique”, let’s see how well Ledger’s final role in Terry Gilliam’s The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus does (at the box office, and with critics) before we jump to too many conclusions.
Moving on, Australia is pretty much out of the race at this point. Slumdog Millionaire, being a smart “feel-good” movie, certainly has a shot in the same way that previous nominees like Little Miss Sunshine and Juno made the cut, but I wonder if they’ll nominate a film set mostly in India. Milk is probably a lock for Picture and Actor, as is Frost/Nixon…both topical and well-acted. I have my, um, doubts about Doubt, as it seems a bit too obvious Oscar bait, but that didn’t stop Atonement from getting a nom last year. Benjamin Button…it depends on the reviews. Revolutionary Road could be one of those actor-driven films that only get nominated in the acting categories, as I’ve heard the direction by Mendes is of the point-and-shoot (and not much else) variety.
I agree with Jamie. Sure, Heath Ledger was really good in the movie and I don’t see why he wouldn’t get nominated for Supporting Actor; but Best Picture? Like Jamie said, it was long and predictable. Plus it came out in the summer, and so did Wall-E, and there are MUCH better films that are coming out this holiday season that deserve to be on the Best Picture list. Sorry Batman Buffs, it just isn’t happening for you at the awards ceremony.
As for your list, Dave, I almost completely agree, though I say we replace Frost/Nixon with Milk. I’m actually really doubtful about Slumdog Millionaire. When will the general audience see it? Even if it made the list, I can’t see it winning. My winner is Revolutionary Road. Go Winslet!
Brad Pitt won’t beat Slumdog Millionaire. Sorry, Brad.
Politics always play a role in these things, and The Dark Knight could conceivably be nominated in an effort to draw more viewers to an awards show that’s been on the decline (in viewership) for years. But let’s consider other box office behemoths such as the Pirates of the Caribbean, Star Wars prequel, and Spider-Man trilogies. Didn’t hear too much Oscar talk about those, did we?
As it stands, The Dark Knight is virtually unparalleled in modern (combined) worldwide critical and commercial success, the Lord of the Rings films being the only real competition in that regard.
As for WALL*E, though it gets a bit too overt in its Message in its second half, it would be a worthy nominee as well, the first 35 minutes expressing a very pure state of cinema. Unfortunately, the institution of an Animated Feature category at the Oscars pretty much ghettoized films of its nature for the next while.
What does Baz Luhrmann have to do to get an Oscar nominated pic??? I don’t think studio execs would have greenlit “Australia” if they didn’t think it had Oscar written all over it.
“Like Jamie said, it was long and predictable.”
It’s not like Milk, or Frost Nixon wouldn’t fall into the category of being “predictable” either, seeing as they basically tick off major points in a well-documented public story. Mythmaking always follows a certain pre-destined path. And personally, I feel that The Dark Knight subverted a number of conventions, in having the villain of the piece actually, in some ways, express himself more rationally than the “hero”. It also set up a number of morally questionable scenarios, particularly the “hero”s final choice of the film, and his public surveillance. Usually in these types of films, “moral quandries” are just smokescreens, and any complicated decisions are left unabridged (or dealt with by external characters, leaving the hero untainted).
Regardless, whether a film makes the Best Picture list or not doesn’t honestly speak to its artistic quality. Were that the case, films like Crash would never get nominated, much less win.
the dark knight was amazing. it should win. i’ve seen every movie on this list (of course, only the ones that have come out) and i believe the dark knight is better than all of them.
the dark knight is an amazing movie, and i definitely think it should win. i’ve seen all the movies on this list that have already come out, and the dark knight is by far the best.
And regarding Dark Knight’s length: fastest moving 2 1/2 hour film I’ve ever seen. Barely an ounce of fat on it, with pretty much every scene advancing the characters and/or the story. Nothing against leisurely-paced films, but this commanded my attention for its entire running time by not letting any scene overstay its welcome.
If I had to guess 5 they would be:
- The Dark Knight (wishful thinking)
- Doubt (call it the Capote effect, where great acting and Hoffman are enough to catapult it into the best picture race)
- Gran Torino (nobody gives this enough credit, but the Academy LOVES Eastwood, hell they even nominated Letters From Iwo Jima)
- Milk (my pick to win for the last few months, the Academy will love Van Sant’s return to mainstream filmmaking, and I hear the film is brilliant)
- Slumdog Millionaire (could be the dark horse to win a la Crash, plus I think Boyle has a great shot at best director since he’s a real auteur and the Academy has yet to give him any love)
Benjamin Button will run out of steam, hell it hasn’t even opened yet. Frost/Nixon will not be liked by enough people to give it best picture hopes. Revolutionary Road is the most likely dark horse, but might be too depressing. The Reader won’t be seen by enough people (much like Little Children). Australia just isn’t good enough.
(Sorry for the confusion, if there was any: “JC” is indeed “Clayton”…I didn’t realize I’d switched back-and-forth, but I’ll settle on “JC” for now.)
I’m also gonna predict that most of the potential Oscar nominees this year will be of the watch-once-or-twice-and -never-again variety. The best films, IMO, hold up to many repeat viewings, and having seen The Dark Knight a number of times in regular and IMAX theaters (which is most definitely NOT common, for me), I can see watching it many times in the future, not only for its relative entertainment value, but for its emotional power.
And I don’t think any of us are going to be surprised if it doesn’t make the short list, but many definitely feel that it’s been underestimated in some quarters (which is to be expected).
I’m starting to hear Forrest Gump comparisons on Benjamin Button, from those who’ve seen it. Doesn’t hurt its Oscar chances, obviously, but artistically-speaking, uh-oh.
Milk will win, and it will be Hollywood referendum on Measure 8.
To join the masses…doesn’t WALL-E have a chance? I just watched it again on DVD…and it SHOULD be up for Best Picture without a doubt.
The impulse with these predictor lists seems to be a Catch 22 of picking the most worthy vs. the most likely. As I’ve yet to see many, if not all, of the typical “awards bait” films that get rushed out in LA & NYC in December, I cannot make a good prediction. But The Dark Knight was dare I say bloated and over-blown. Way too much hype there, folks. Ledger was fine but much more interesting in I’m Not There and Monster’s Ball. Let’s not just nominate as it’s his last go at the ball. And as for Wall*E…manipulative, simplistic dreck. Ironic that “we” were all being chastised for becoming complacent, spoon-fed simps by this ridiculous film…and yet the very act of us reclining in our stadium seats and stuffing ourselves with gargantuan quantities of popcorn was a HUGE disconnect. Ya’ll need to recalibrate your taste-meters.
People putting down “The Dark Knight” cause it’s not Oscar-worthy, not “serious” enough, not “artsy” enough. The Oscars are so beyond reproach. But how many times has someone or some films nominated or even won that did not deserve it? It’s just politics. It may not be a top 5 performance, but Tom Oldman was the soul of TDK. It’s just cool to hate that movie now because of the money made….but it will stand the test of time.
“But The Dark Knight was dare I say bloated and over-blown. Way too much hype there, folks. Ledger was fine but much more interesting in I’m Not There and Monster’s Ball. Let’s not just nominate as it’s his last go at the ball.”
… what??? did you SEE his performance in the dark knight?! easily one of the best performances i’ve seen in my life, let alone from ledger. he was absolutely flawless – he was no longer heath ledger; he was the joker. i don’t think you can get any better than that.