Two female-driven films — one aimed at art houses, the other at the heartland — hit theaters this week, and both have some awards hopes to speak of. Here are the categories where Broken Embraces and The Blind Side could be a contender.

BROKEN EMBRACES

Possibles

Best Actress, Penélope Cruz
The reigning Best Supporting Actress winner’s role in this Almodóvar film is not as dominating as was her part in Volver, which earned her a nod in this category three years ago. But she still brings her seductive mix of glamour and bite.

Best Original Screenplay, Pedro Almodóvar
As I’ve mentioned before, this year’s original-screenplay pickings are quite slim. And he’s won this category before.

Long shots

Best Picture
It’s got perhaps the best shot of any foreign film this year (along with The White Ribbon, perhaps). But is the Academy likelier to nominate an animated film or a documentary in its biggest race?

Best Director, Pedro Almodóvar
The film may not be as inventive as Talk to Her, for which he scored a nod in this race. But his singular touch should still earn some votes.

THE BLIND SIDE

Long shot

Best Actress, Sandra Bullock
It’s been a good year for one of this country’s top sweethearts (with the exception of All About Steve, of course). Comparisons to Erin Brockovich may help Bullock’s case, but she still seems like a better bet for a nomination at the Golden Globes.

Image credit: Emilio Pereda/Paola Ardizzoni

An indie drama with three impressive performances and a quirky animated film with a dream cast are the two Oscar-baiting entries to hit theaters this weekend. Here’s how The Messenger and Fantastic Mr. Fox might fare in this year’s awards races.

THE MESSENGER

Possible

Best Supporting Actor, Woody Harrelson: He’s the biggest star in the cast and also has the good fortune to be a contender in this year’s weakest major race. He’s also quite impressive in the film’s roughest scenes.

Best Original Screenplay, Oren Moverman and Alessandro Camon: With most of the big Oscar guns in the adapted-screenplay race, Moverman and Camon’s understated script could find itself in the running alongside Up and A Serious Man.

Long shots

Best Actor, Ben Foster: The standout from Alpha Dog and 3:10 to Yuma turns in another raw performance as a soldier forced to tell military families their loved ones have been killed. But he may have a tough time competing with his more seasoned competitors.

Best Supporting Actress, Samantha Morton: She’s one of the few actresses who seems to be able to score acting nominations for quieter work—witness her Best Actress nod for In America. And she’s typically stoic as a recent widow. Too bad Precious and Up in the Air may hog most of the slots in her category.

FANTASTIC MR. FOX

Best Bet

Best Animated Feature: With five slots in this year’s race (compared to the usual three), Wes Anderson’s whimsical take on Roald Dahl’s book stands a great chance of competing against the likes of Pixar and Ponyo.

Possible

Best Original Song, “Petey’s Song”: Jarvis Cocker’s countrified ode may not be the most beautiful track in competition this year, but the music branch often goes for the non-traditional choices.

So there’s this movie that came out today; it’s called Precious. Maybe you’ve heard of it? Ever since its Sundance premiere all the way back in January, people have been using the O-word (no, not Oprah) when talking about the film. Now that it’s finally out, I can run down its chances in all the major categories, followed by two long-shot male performances from the weekend’s other new releases.

PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL ‘PUSH’ BY SAPPHIRE

Best Bets

Best Picture: In a year featuring several strong independent films (The Hurt Locker, An Education, A Single Man), it’s easily the indie with the best shot at Oscar.

Best Director, Lee Daniels: With only his second feature, he stands to become the second African-American nominee in this category (after Boyz N the Hood’s John Singleton). Spike Lee must be seething.

Best Actress, Gabourey Sidibe: Her heartbreaking performance will be even more irresistible once Academy members realize she’s actually the opposite of her downtrodden character.

Best Supporting Actress, Mo’Nique: The comedian galvanizes the film with her shocking turn as an abusive mother. She’s another contender who can win over voters as the season continues.

Best Adapted Screenplay, Geoffrey Fletcher: Fletcher skillfully synthesized Sapphire’s brutal novel into a vividly emotional and ultimately hopeful script.

Possibles

Best Supporting Actress, Mariah Carey: Once people get past the strange concept of Carey as an Oscar contender, they won’t be able to deny the power of her few scenes as a social worker. If you ask me, she more than deserves to be in this race.

Best Original Song, “I Can See in Color”: Mary J. Blige’s spare and raw track perfectly reflects the film’s emotional impact. But is it too spare for the music branch?

Long shot

Best Supporting Actress, Paula Patton: She has perhaps the film’s least showy role, but Patton is an angelic presence as Precious’ caring teacher. If the movie becomes a phenomenon, she could benefit with a nod.

THAT EVENING SUN

Long shot

Best Actor, Hal Holbrook: Two years after earning his first career nomination for Into the Wild, the veteran performer is earning raves for his lead role in the southern drama. But will anyone actually see it?

THE MEN WHO STARE AT GOATS

Long shot

Best Supporting Actor, George Clooney: The past winner in this category is a hoot in the bizarre comedy. But truly polarizing reviews for the film may count him out. Good thing he’s got his surefire leading-man turn in Up in the Air.