So there’s this movie that came out today; it’s called Precious. Maybe you’ve heard of it? Ever since its Sundance premiere all the way back in January, people have been using the O-word (no, not Oprah) when talking about the film. Now that it’s finally out, I can run down its chances in all the major categories, followed by two long-shot male performances from the weekend’s other new releases.
PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL ‘PUSH’ BY SAPPHIRE
Best Bets
Best Picture: In a year featuring several strong independent films (The Hurt Locker, An Education, A Single Man), it’s easily the indie with the best shot at Oscar.
Best Director, Lee Daniels: With only his second feature, he stands to become the second African-American nominee in this category (after Boyz N the Hood’s John Singleton). Spike Lee must be seething.
Best Actress, Gabourey Sidibe: Her heartbreaking performance will be even more irresistible once Academy members realize she’s actually the opposite of her downtrodden character.
Best Supporting Actress, Mo’Nique: The comedian galvanizes the film with her shocking turn as an abusive mother. She’s another contender who can win over voters as the season continues.
Best Adapted Screenplay, Geoffrey Fletcher: Fletcher skillfully synthesized Sapphire’s brutal novel into a vividly emotional and ultimately hopeful script.
Possibles
Best Supporting Actress, Mariah Carey: Once people get past the strange concept of Carey as an Oscar contender, they won’t be able to deny the power of her few scenes as a social worker. If you ask me, she more than deserves to be in this race.
Best Original Song, “I Can See in Color”: Mary J. Blige’s spare and raw track perfectly reflects the film’s emotional impact. But is it too spare for the music branch?
Long shot
Best Supporting Actress, Paula Patton: She has perhaps the film’s least showy role, but Patton is an angelic presence as Precious’ caring teacher. If the movie becomes a phenomenon, she could benefit with a nod.
THAT EVENING SUN
Long shot
Best Actor, Hal Holbrook: Two years after earning his first career nomination for Into the Wild, the veteran performer is earning raves for his lead role in the southern drama. But will anyone actually see it?
THE MEN WHO STARE AT GOATS
Long shot
Best Supporting Actor, George Clooney: The past winner in this category is a hoot in the bizarre comedy. But truly polarizing reviews for the film may count him out. Good thing he’s got his surefire leading-man turn in Up in the Air.
Earlier this week I posted about 
Does everyone else love this idea as much as I do? The Academy has announced that Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin will cohost this season’s Oscar telecast on March 7, 2010. And I for one say Hallelujah! They’re both adept comedians who’ll certainly play off each other well. Their upcoming romantic comedy with Meryl Streep, It’s Complicated, stands to be one of the highlights of the holiday movie season (not to mention a dark horse for a Best Picture nomination). And for telecast coproducer Adam Shankman and the Oscars themselves, they’re a combination of something old and something new: 
I know that when it comes to scoring an Oscar nomination, it helps to be fresh in voters’ minds, but this is a little ridiculous. In the past few weeks, Oscar-qualifying runs were announced for The Last Station, with Helen Mirren, and The Loss of a Teardrop Diamond, starring Bryce Dallas Howard. And now comes word of a one-week release for the festival drama London River, featuring Brenda Blethyn (who gave what I still believe is one of the best performances ever in Secrets & Lies). Clearly these last-minute moves speak to how sparse the Best Actress race is this year—Julie & Julia’s Meryl Streep, An Education’s Carey Mulligan, and Precious‘ Gabourey Sidibe are likely in, leaving two slots for the taking. But can any of these 11th-hour entries actually make it into the final five? Off the three, I’d give Mirren the edge; her performance as Leo Tolstoy’s wife, Sophia, is fiery and intense, and she’s got Sony Pictures Classics releasing the film. But with other promising contenders yet to be seen (Nine’s Marion Cotillard, The Lovely Bones‘ Saoirse Ronan), scoring a nomination as a last-minute contender is definitely going to be an uphill battle.
Perhaps the most troubling effect of the Academy’s decision to have 10 Best Picture nominees this season is that whenever any movie does at all well, people start talking Oscar. I for one am certainly guilty of that—remember my 
By now you’ve probably heard the reports that Hugh Jackman has 
Over the past few weeks there have been a few whispers that Paramount was considering campaigning for Up in the Air’s Vera Farmiga in the Best Actress category so that she wouldn’t compete with her breakout costar Anna Kendrick. Now I hear from Farmiga’s camp that her campaign will definitely be in the supporting actress race. Even though it’s not ideal to have multiple contenders from the same film in one category, it’s certainly the right decision in this case. I haven’t counted their minutes of screen time, but having seen the movie twice now, Farmiga’s role seems smaller than Kendrick’s; there are patches of the film where she doesn’t appear at all.
The Gotham Independent Film Award nomination lists were revealed today, recognizing a few expected indies (The Hurt Locker, A Serious Man) while surprisingly neglecting others (where the heck is Precious?). Because the Gotham nominees are determined by small panels of four people each, today’s results won’t necessarily foreshadow the Spirit Awards or Oscars. But they’re still fun to check out. Here’s the full list of nominees; the awards will be presented on Nov. 30.
After the wealth of Oscar-baiting releases from 
