You can blame it on Adrien Brody. Ever since the star of The Pianist shocked the Kodak Theatre by winning the Best Actor Oscar over presumed front-runners Jack Nicholson and Daniel Day-Lewis in 2003, some people now forecast upsets in the acting races every year. I’ve already begun to hear it: Maggie Gyllenhaal could just topple Mo’Nique for Best Supporting Actress. Woody Harrelson is poised to upset Christoph Waltz for Best Supporting Actor. Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep will split the Best Actress vote, allowing for Gabourey Sidibe to steal it. I’m even quasi-guilty of perpetuating this myth: When one of my Twitter followers asked me if Jeremy Renner “could pull an Adrien Brody,” I responded, “It’s a long shot, but he’s the only one who can upset Jeff Bridges.” I still think Renner is No. 2 in the Best Actor derby, but face it: It’s not happening. And neither is Maggie Gyllenhaal. Or Woody Harrelson. Or Gabourey Sidibe. We all need to be content with the reality that the only real races in the major categories this year are for Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay. Otherwise we’re all setting ourselves up for a night of disappointment on March 7.
Annie Awards: Good news, bad news for 'Up'
I’m intrigued by the results of this weekend’s Annie Awards honoring the top animated films of the year. Up took home the two biggest prizes, for Best Animated Feature and Best Director, which was certainly to be expected. But it’s interesting to note that two other entries topped Up in overall wins with three: The Princess and the Frog (Animated Effects, Character Animation, and Voice Acting) and Coraline (Character Design, Music, and Production Design). Meanwhile, Fantastic Mr. Fox won the writing award.
Given that Up, Princess, Coraline, and Fox are all also nominated for the Best Animated Feature Oscar (along with surprise nominee The Secret of Kells), does this mean that this year’s Academy contest is actually closer than we think? I’m not so sure. It’s true that in the last two years, the Annies were dominated by one film (Ratatouille won 9 of the 10 feature-film categories two years ago, while Kung Fu Panda swept all 10 last year). But the Academy does seem to have a Pixar bent as of late: The company won the Oscar four out of the last six years, including last year, when WALL*E scored the trophy after going 0 for 7 at the Annies. Though the animation community was more divided this year, I fully expect the Academy (which nominated Up for Best Picture, after all) to hand Pixar its fifth win.
Image credit: Disney/Pixar
'(500) Days of Summer,' 'Bright Star,' 'Where the Wild Things Are': What went wrong?
Over the last few months I’ve noticed several movies repeatedly popping up in your comments to my OscarWatch posts. Three of those films — (500) Days of Summer, Bright Star, and Where the Wild Things Are — were all but left out of this week’s Academy Award nominations announcement despite mostly positive reviews and strong cult followings. So let’s look at each of these entries and figure out how they went from possible awards bait to eventual also-rans.
(500) DAYS OF SUMMER
The quirky summer comedy was one of the breakouts from Sundance, along with Precious and An Education. It scored three major Spirit Award nominations and two big Golden Globe nods, for Best Comedy and Best Actor in a Comedy, but lost both, even though some prognosticators (like myself) thought it had a shot at the Best Comedy trophy. While it was always a dark horse for one of the ten Best Picture slots, its adorable script by Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber was considered a top contender for Best Original Screenplay, even earning a Writers Guild nomination alongside A Serious Man and The Hurt Locker. But The Messenger stole its Oscar slot. The fault doesn’t lie with the campaign: Even after Fox Searchlight focused its attention on its late addition, Crazy Heart, it still did right by (500) Days in terms of For Your Consideration ads and industry events. But at the end of the day, the Academy is still an older voting body, and likely didn’t fall for the film’s bittersweet tone as much as all of us fans did.
BRIGHT STAR
When it premiered at Cannes, Jane Campion’s period drama was widely considered a return to form for the filmmaker as well as a star-making vehicle for lead actress Abbie Cornish. So why did it only end up with one nomination, for Best Costume Design? In my mind, it was a question of timing and resources. Once the film then played at Toronto, it had several other strong female-driven films to contend with, most notably An Education. And while Cornish dutifully did her PR rounds (including a lovely interview with yours truly), no one could possibly compete with the charm offensive that was the captivating Carey Mulligan. It didn’t help that Bright Star was released relatively early in the season, in September; after a so-so box office showing, many people soon forgot about the film. Plus, Bright Star’s fledgling distributor, Apparition, then put out The Young Victoria, another costume drama with a solid lead female turn, in December, all but shunting Star to the sidelines.
WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE
Spike Jonze scored a Best Director nod ten years ago for Being John Malkovich. And his unorthodox adaptation of Maurice Sendak’s classic children’s book started strong, earning a decent $77 million at the domestic box office and landing on the National Board of Review’s top 10. Then it basically disappeared from the awards universe. My hunch is that, as with (500) Days, the stodgier members of the Academy didn’t cotton to the film’s woodsy look, which belied its steep production cost. (If a movie is going to cost a lot of dough, they want to see the money more explicitly on the screen.) Also complicating matters was the Academy’s decision to disqualify Karen O and Carter Burwell’s music from Best Score consideration; many observers believe it was because it was the work of two composers working separately rather than as one team. The moral of the story: If Jonze wants to do his trippy, bizarro thing, the Oscars want it to be for grown-ups.
Image credit: Wild Things: Matt Nettheim; Summer: Chuck Zlotnick
Random Oscar Trivia!
Here are a handful of interesting (well, to me, at least) tidbits from yesterday’s announcement of the 82nd Annual Academy Award nominations.
1. Avatar received nine nominations but was left out of Best Screenplay. The last film to win Best Picture with out a screenplay nomination? James Cameron’s last nominee, Titanic.
2. Avatar wasn’t nominated for SAG Best Cast, lost the PGA and DGA awards, and is likely to lose the WGA prize later this month. Since the SAG Best Cast prize was introduced in 1996, no film has ever won Best Picture without winning at least one of the four major guild awards.
3. With four nominations, J.J. Abrams’ Star Trek reboot tied with Leonard Nimoy’s Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home for the most nods for a Trek film.
4. Up in the Air scored six nominations (including three for acting, more than any other movie) but was left out of Best Editing. No film has won Best Picture without an editing nomination since Ordinary People in 1981.
5. Up in the Air producers Jason and Ivan Reitman are the first father/son producing team to be nominated for Best Picture since Mario and Vittorio Cecchi Gori for Il Postino in 1995.
6. Precious is the first-ever Best Picture nominee to be directed by an African-American filmmaker.
7. Earning her 16th career acting nomination for Julie & Julia, Meryl Streep broke her own record—again—for the most nominated actor in Oscar history.
8. This year’s SAG nominees in the individual acting races lined up with the eventual acting nominees 19 for 20, the most ever. The only Oscar nominee not to earn a SAG nod first: Crazy Heart’s Maggie Gyllenhaal.
9. If Avatar wins Best Picture, it’ll be the highest-grossing winner ever (obviously).
10. If The Hurt Locker wins Best Picture, it’ll be the lowest-grossing winner ever.
11. The last time Meryl Streep won an Oscar, in 1983, was before her competitors Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe were even born.
Anything I left out? If you’re into all this stuff as much as I am, school me! Oh, and follow me on Twitter too (@davekarger).
Oscar nominations announced: 'Avatar,' 'Hurt Locker' lead with nine each
Here are the nominees in the 10 major categories for the 82nd Annual Academy Awards. Avatar and The Hurt Locker each scored nine nominations. The winners will be announced on March 7. I’ll write up my category-by-category commentary later this morning. In the meantime, don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (@davekarger) for Academy Award updates between now and the Oscar ceremony.
Best Picture
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
Eight of the 10 Producers Guild nominees repeated here. Invictus and Star Trek were replaced by A Serious Man and, in one of the morning’s biggest surprises, The Blind Side, which had received no guild nominations or critics prizes other than for Sandra Bullock’s performance. Clearly all the Sandra love buoyed the film. As expected, The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Inglourious Basterds (8 nods), Precious (6 nods), and Up in the Air (6 nods) led the pack, while Up becomes only the second animated film ever to be nominated for Best Picture. Star Trek, meanwhile, did score a total of four nominations but just couldn’t muscle into Best Picture. That’s the best news for Avatar, which still may have a hard time beating The Hurt Locker.
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
These are the five SAG nominees, so nothing surprising here. Morgan Freeman was the only possible weak link, but none of the guys on the bubble—Viggo Mortensen, Matt Damon, Ben Foster, Robert Downey Jr.—had enough oomph. How can Jeff Bridges lose? I’d say Jeremy Renner is the only one who can upset him (like Adrien Brody for The Pianist).
Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Another repeat of the SAG nominees. The Young Victoria’s Emily Blunt had a shot at displacing Helen Mirren, but clearly the older voters responded well to The Last Station. The Blind Side’s Best Picture nomination (compared to no other nods for Julie & Julia) means Bullock has the edge. Who’da thunk it?
Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
A bunch of talented gents were overlooked here: Alec Baldwin, Christian McKay, Alfred Molina, Peter Sarsgaard, and Anthony Mackie, to name just five. As I’ve stated before, this race was over before it ever began.
Best Supporting Actress
Penélope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo’Nique, Precious
Here we have the only variance from SAG in the individual acting races, as Maggie Gyllenhaal stole Diane Kruger’s slot. And even though Julianne Moore failed to earn a SAG nod for A Single Man, I’m still surprised the Academy didn’t give her a fifth career nomination.
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
The five DGA nominees repeated here, fending off competition from the likes of Neill Blomkamp and Lone Scherfig. But these five films are so far out in front that no one else really had a shot. It’s Bigelow’s to lose.
Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman, The Messenger
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Pete Docter, Bob Peterson & Tom McCarthy, Up
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
As with Titanic, James Cameron failed to earn a screenplay nomination for Avatar. The Messenger duo stole the fifth slot from the adorable (500) Days of Summer guys. With Hurt Locker and Basterds in the running, this may be the tightest major race of the year.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci & Tony Roche, In the Loop
Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell, District 9
Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious
Nick Hornby, An Education
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
If there’s a shock here, it’s the inclusion of the little-seen In the Loop over Fantastic Mr. Fox. But the writers branch often goes for a sharp British indie, so maybe I shouldn’t be so surprised.
Best Animated Film
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up
Best Foreign Language Film
El Secreto do Sus Ojos (Argentina)
Un Prophete (France)
The White Ribbon (Germany)
Ajami (Israel)
The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)
The rest of the categories are after the jump.
Oscar nominations: What will be the biggest surprise?
Now that we’re less than 24 hours away from the Oscar nominations announcement, I thought I’d resurrect perhaps my favorite post from last year, where I tried to imagine what the biggest surprises of the nominations might be. (A few of them, like The Reader bumping out The Dark Knight for Best Picture, or Kate Winslet landing in Best Actress instead of Best Supporting Actress for that film, actually ended up happening.) This year contains many sure things — The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Up in the Air, Inglourious Basterds, and Precious will claim half of the Best Picture slots, for instance — but there’s also a lot that’s up for grabs. So here are 10 possible shockers we may be talking about tomorrow.
1. With the exception of An Education, the other five Best Picture slots all go to $100-million-plus grossers: some combination of Up, District 9, Star Trek, The Blind Side, and The Hangover.
2. Though Precious scores a Best Picture nod, director Lee Daniels is overlooked, in favor of District 9’s Neill Blomkamp.
3. Avatar’s Zoe Saldana muscles into Best Actress over The Last Station’s Helen Mirren, becoming the first actor ever to earn a nomination for a motion-capture or voice performance.
4. The Hurt Locker’s Anthony Mackie scores a supporting-actor nomination after being ignored by the Broadcast Critics, Golden Globes, and SAG.
5. Stanley Tucci earns his first career nomination…but for Julie & Julia instead of The Lovely Bones.
6. Inglourious Basterds standouts Diane Kruger and Mélanie Laurent both make it into the supporting actress race over Julianne Moore and Samantha Morton.
7. Invictus gets completely shut out of the nominations.
8. Ed Helms’ Hangover ditty “Stu’s Song” steals a Best Song nomination away from Nine.
9. Jeff Bridges’ momentum buoys Crazy Heart into the Best Supporting Actress (Maggie Gyllenhaal) and/or Best Adapted Screenplay (Scott Cooper) categories.
And finally…
10. The Hurt Locker ties Avatar for the most nominations, with 9 each.
Can you see any of these taking place tomorrow? What surprises are you hoping for? Follow me on Twitter (@davekarger) for Oscar news and updates for the rest of the season.
Image credit: Frank Masi
With DGA win, 'Hurt Locker' has Oscar upper hand
As my colleague Adam Vary has reported from the scene, The Hurt Locker’s Kathryn Bigelow won the Directors Guild prize last night, over Avatar’s James Cameron. For many people, the outcome is a surprise: Two of the smartest Oscar experts in my mind, like Tom O’Neil at Gold Derby and Kris Tapley at InContention, both were sure Cameron would prevail considering the DGA’s populist bent and no-screeners policy. Their thinking was that The Hurt Locker simply may not have been seen by enough DGA voters to eke out a win. I was one of the Oscar dorks who had predicted a Bigelow victory, though I certainly wasn’t confident in my guess.
Now that The Hurt Locker has won the PGA and DGA prizes, is an Oscar win next? Since Avatar doesn’t have a single guild-award win to its credit as of yet, Bigelow’s film certainly has the edge at the moment, particularly in the Best Director category, where she’d be the first woman ever to win (as she was at the DGA). But let’s also remember that just four years ago, Brokeback Mountain lost the Best Picture Oscar after picking up DGA and PGA honors. So nothing is a sure thing.
Image credit: Jordan Strauss/Wireimage.com
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